A scenario matrix is a strategic foresight tool designed to explore alternative futures and understand how different combinations of forces, uncertainties and dynamics may shape the evolution of a system. Its primary purpose is not to predict the future, but to broaden strategic understanding of possible future pathways, enabling organisations and territories to prepare for complex, uncertain and rapidly changing environments.
The development of a scenario matrix begins with defining:
- a clear strategic focus—such as an organisation, sector or territory
- and conducting a structured analysis of the external environment. This analysis integrates trends, megatrends, weak signals and key drivers of change in order to identify the variables that most strongly influence future outcomes.
From this process, critical uncertainties are selected based on their potential impact and the degree of uncertainty surrounding their future evolution.
The matrix provides a structured framework to organise these uncertainties and generate a set of coherent and plausible future contexts. Each scenario is developed through qualitative narratives that describe how economic, technological, social, political and environmental dimensions may interact, including the behaviour of key stakeholders, emerging risks and potential opportunities. In more advanced applications, these narratives can be complemented with indicators, strategic assumptions and early-warning signals to support ongoing monitoring.
From a strategic perspective, the scenario matrix enables organisations to test decisions, policies and strategies across multiple possible futures, reducing reliance on a single expected outcome. This approach supports the identification of robust strategic options—those that remain effective under different conditions—and helps decision-makers recognise potential turning points that may require strategic adaptation over time.
Within organisational and public-sector contexts, the scenario matrix is widely used to support strategic planning, risk management, innovation processes and policy design. Its value lies in fostering anticipatory thinking, enriching strategic dialogue and strengthening adaptive capacity and resilience in the face of uncertainty. Ultimately, the scenario matrix is a core foresight tool for structured, informed and action-oriented thinking about the future.
